What we keep
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If you email us, we keep your email so we can reply. Ask, and we'll delete it.
You're looking at sample picks: this is how the site looks with real ones. Times in the sample follow your device's clock, so they won't match real fixtures.
Today's picks
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Every pick carries three signals. Follow the one that matches what you want.
You can also combine them. If you just want to win more often and the price matters less, the final call is the one to follow. Add the take when the price matters too: Final call Yes plus Play it is the strongest pick there is.
Want picks that will probably win?
1Follow the final call
- Call: Yesstrong chance, the checks agree
- Call: Maybesome doubts, or too little evidence
- Call: Noa clear reason against it
Ignores the odds: a Yes can still be a poor price.
Want bets worth their price?
2Follow the take
- Play itthe odds pay more than the chance needs
- Play it smallfair odds, keep the stake low
- Best odds onlyonly at the best odds shown
- Close callwithin 2 points: slightly better odds do it
- Shop around2 to 5 points short: find better odds
- Skip ittoo short, or the league is going badly
The one that decides profit over time.
Hunting the rare value bet?
3Watch the type
- Valuepays more than its chance is worth
- Small valuea slight edge at this price
- No valueonly inside accumulator ideas
Most picks are Likely: high chance, fair price. That's the default, so rows don't repeat it.
The bar: blue is our chance, the red mark is what the odds need. Blue past red means the odds are worth it.
No picks match this filter on this day.
Waiting for prices
We're watching these, but no bookmaker has priced them properly yet. They're not picks, and they only become one if they pass every check once the prices are in.
Accumulator ideas
Ready-made from today's picks, for days when you'd rather not build your own. They're a starting point: take one as it is, swap a leg, or leave them all.
Worth knowing: an accumulator only pays if every pick wins. More picks means a bigger price, but also more ways for one of them to let you down. Once an idea is published it's locked: we never swap a leg or post a "better" version later, because you might already have it on.
Record
Every settled pick, the losers included, at 1 unit a pick and the typical bookmaker's price. Nothing gets deleted, nothing gets quietly edited.
Last ten
| Date | Match | Pick | Chance | Price | Result | Units |
|---|
| Date | Idea | Legs | Price | Result | Units |
|---|
Ideas are counted separately from single picks, so neither record flatters the other.
Monthly audits
On the 1st of every month we check the month before, line by line: every pick, its price, its result and, once there are enough, how it compared with the closing price. Then we note what we're changing.
What the audit is, and what it isn't
It counts every pick we posted, winners and losers, so a league or a bet type that keeps going wrong shows up and gets fixed.
It isn't a staking plan. You don't need to play every pick; our take on each one, and your own judgement, are there for that.
Month by month
| Month | Picks | Won–lost | Hit rate | vs expected | Return | Units | Beat the close | Best league | Toughest league |
|---|
How a month is checked
- Every pick is published before kickoff, with the time it went out.
- Results come from official match data and are settled the same way every time.
- Each price is compared with the closing price. Beating it regularly is the first real sign of an edge, long before the results can prove anything.
- If something was settled wrong, it stays visible in the audit along with the fix.
- Each audit ends with what we're changing next month, and the next audit shows whether it worked.
Coverage
Every league we follow, what we pick in it and how it's going this month. When a league goes cold for us, you'll see it here first.
| League | Picks | Won–lost | Hit rate | Return | Markets | Our view |
|---|
How to use KickTrace
A few habits that get the most out of the picks, whether you follow one a week or most days.
Read a row left to right
Kickoff, the match, our pick, its chance against the chance the odds need, the odds, then the take and the final call. After the match, the result.
Follow the signal you care about
Want winners? Follow the final call. Want a fair price? Follow the take. Hunting value? Switch on the type column. The filters above the picks do it in one click.
Check your odds
Every pick shows the chance its odds need. If your bookmaker pays more than our odds, it's a better bet than ours; if it pays less, it's worse.
Keep stakes level
Bet the same small slice of your betting money on each pick, around 1 to 2%. Doubling up after a loss is how good months turn into bad ones.
Use the shortcuts
Strongest calls lists up to three picks that clear the safety bar, and accumulator ideas are ready-made for busy days. Change or drop any leg you like.
Judge us over months
Ten picks prove nothing either way. The record and the monthly audits are where the real story is, and they're always open.
Who it's for
People who already bet on football and want the numbers behind each pick: the chance, the price it needs and an honest record.
It doesn't make betting safe or profitable, and it's never a reason to bet more. Stake only what you can afford to lose.
How it works
Behind the site is our own analysis system. It looks at each match in four steps and only calls something value when the numbers back it up, which on most days means likely picks rather than big promises.
Read the market
Prices from a range of bookmakers, with their margin taken out, give the starting chance for every outcome.
Weigh the models
Team ratings, expected goals and form only get a say in the leagues where two years of week-by-week testing show they help.
Check each pick
Is the best price good enough, do the models agree, has the money moved against it, and has this kind of pick paid before at real prices?
Publish and settle
Every night, around 23:30 Central European Time, the next day's picks go out, each with its take and final call. They're locked from that moment, settled from the results and counted in the monthly audit.
What makes it different
It starts from the price
Most tipsters pick a team and then hunt for reasons. Ours starts with what the betting market already knows and only disagrees when it has evidence.
It has to earn its opinions
Every model is tested on two seasons of real matches and real bookmaker prices. If it doesn't beat the market in a league, it gets no say there.
It tells you when there's nothing
Plenty of days have no real value. Instead of inventing some, the system says so, and calls the rest likely picks.
It can't rewrite history
Picks are locked the moment they're published, settled from official results and audited every month, losers included.
What "likely" really means
| Chance | Wins and losses | Loses | Break-even | In 100 bets | Losing run to expect |
|---|
A 75% pick still loses about one bet in four, and over a hundred bets a run of three losses in a row is normal, not a sign that anything's broken. Take a pick below its break-even price often enough and it costs you money, even though it usually wins.
About
KickTrace publishes football picks with the numbers behind them: the chance we give each one, the price it needs to be worth it, and the result once the match is over.
The picks come from an analysis system that compares each match with the betting market, checks several rating models, and is tested on two seasons of past matches. Most days it finds picks that are likely rather than good value, and it labels them that way.
It runs by itself every night: finished matches are settled, new picks are published, and every month the results are audited in public, losses included.
What you can rely on
- Every pick is published before kickoff, with the time it went up.
- Nothing is deleted or edited afterwards. Winners and losers both stay.
- Every month gets a public audit.
- Changes to the system are written down in that audit.
- No guarantees and no "sure things".
Questions people ask
Are the picks guaranteed?
No. A pick is a chance, not a promise: an 80% pick still loses about one time in five, and the record shows those losses too.
What's the difference between "Likely" and "Value"?
Likely means the pick wins often, but the price is only fair. Value means the price pays more than the chance is worth, which is what pays off over time. Value is rarer.
What does "needs 81%" mean?
It's the chance the pick needs at that price just to break even: 100 divided by the odds. If our chance is higher than that, the price is good.
My bookmaker's odds are different. What now?
Work out what your odds need: 100 divided by them. If our chance is still higher, it's still a fair bet; if not, skip it. The converter under How it works does the sum for you.
Which signal should I follow?
The one that matches what you want. The final call says how likely a pick is to land, the take says whether the odds are worth it, and the type marks the rare value bets. You can combine them: Final call Yes plus Play it is the strongest pick there is.
What is the final call?
Yes, Maybe or No on how sound a pick is: its chance, whether the models agree, which way the money moved and more. It's decided once, when the pick is published, and never changed. It doesn't look at the price, so a Yes isn't automatically a good bet.
Do I have to bet every pick?
No. Choose the ones that suit you. Our take on each pick helps, and the record is a scorecard, not a staking plan.
When do the picks go up?
Every night, usually between 23:15 and 01:00 Central European Time, for the day ahead.
Can a pick change after it's posted?
No. Once published, a pick or accumulator idea is locked: no edits, no swaps, no second version. It keeps the odds it was published with.
Should I play the accumulator ideas exactly as they are?
They're suggestions for days you don't want to build your own. Each leg shows its own chance, so drop any leg you don't like.
Which time zone are the kickoff times in?
Yours. The site uses your device's time zone; you can change it at the bottom of the menu.
Privacy & safety
What this site collects (almost nothing), and how to keep betting sensible.
Cookies and tracking
We don't set cookies, show adverts or use tracking or analytics tools. Your settings (time zone, filter, and whether the guide and type column are shown) are stored in your own browser and never sent to us.
Security
Every page is served over an encrypted connection and loads only the site's own files. Our hosting provider processes standard connection data to deliver the site. Found a problem? Please email us.
Your rights
Under EU data-protection law you can ask what we hold about you (normally just emails you've sent us), ask for a copy, or ask us to delete it. We answer within 30 days.
Betting responsibly
KickTrace is for adults, 18 and over. Only bet money you can afford to lose, set your budget before the month starts, and use the deposit limits and time-outs your bookmaker offers.
Never bet more to win back a loss. If betting stops being fun (you bet more than you planned, borrow to bet, or hide it from people close to you), take a break and call your country's gambling helpline. It's free and confidential.
Picks are an opinion, not financial advice. Prices move, so check your bookmaker's before you bet. Past results don't promise future ones.
Contact
A question, a result you think was settled wrong, or a league you'd like covered: email us.
Good things to write about
- A pick, a final call or a result you'd like explained
- A mistake in the record or an audit
- A league or a type of bet you'd like covered
- Something on the site that looks wrong or broken
- Your data (normally just emails you've sent us)